Wednesday, April 25, 2018

The True Win: Another BwM Advanced Statistic 4/25/18

Hey baseball fans!

ERA and WHIP are, in my opinion, the easiest measurements of a pitcher's ability. You'll notice that I didn't say wins. That's because the "win" statistic can be extremely misleading. In some cases, a pitcher can get a ton of run support, allow a lot of earned runs, and still win the game; in other cases, a pitcher can go eight scoreless innings only to leave the game in the ninth with the contest still tied at zero. So, in order to make the calculation of wins seem a bit more correlated to a pitcher's skill, I present to you my new statistic: the true win.

The true win is calculated as follows: if a pitcher allows less earned runs than the average annual league ERA during a start, that pitcher is awarded with a true win. A pitcher can even earn a true win in cases where his bullpen blows (and loses) the game. On the other hand, if a pitcher allows more earned runs than the average annual league ERA during a start, that pitcher is awarded with a true loss. Here's an example: the average league ERA for 2017 was 4.35, so if a pitcher goes six innings and allows three runs, which equates to an in-game ERA of 4.50, then he gets a true loss. Some FAQs: a pitcher's true record can only be recorded at season's end; a pitcher is in line for a true win only if he pitches for at least five innings, which is the same rule for real wins; true wins and losses only apply for starters.

In 1968, Bob Gibson's real won-loss record was 22-9, which is impressive, but what's even more impressive was his 1.12 ERA that year. Because the 1968 average league ERA was 2.98, Gibson's true record was 27-7, meaning some real losses turned into true wins for the Hall of Famer. 1963's average league ERA was 3.46, giving Sandy Koufax (pictured below) a 1963 true record of 31-9 in his 40 starts that season, compared to his real record of 25-5. Like I said before, the average league ERA in 2017 was 4.35, so the 2017 Cy Young Award winner, Max Scherzer, had a 2017 true record of 23-7, but a real record of 16-6.

What are some faults with this new system of determining wins? What are some faults with the old system? Leave your thoughts in the comments section below. Thanks for reading this post and I hope you enjoyed it. Check back soon for more of "all the buzz on what wuzz."


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